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Cringely says DRM doomed in 2007, so is Zune

This year will see ecosystem changing digital music milestones, if Robert X. Cringely's crystal ball is working properly. In his 2007 predictions Cringely writes, "No one DRM technology emerges as the winner and the RIAA begins to back off as it loses a few legal cases. Still, no Internet-only song wins a Grammy or is even recognized as existing." He also turns his six-shooter of prognostication on Apple's unibrow baby wanna-be, "Zune 2.0 appears, isn't brown, but still nobody buys it."

Cringely's predictions give us something to think about. I've already gone on record as saying DRM is deadmeat in 2007 and, I think he's certainly within reason to believe the RIAA will eventually tire of its endless stream of litigation. What I think the RIAA won't do is end one strategy without starting another, so look for signs of a new direction in "piracy management."

Let's face it, piracy isn't going to shrivel up and die, but will be managed like a chronic disease, rather than through a frantic hacking off of limbs
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As for the Zune, I don't think it matters. Zune 2.0 or not the only thing that will displace Apple as top dog in the digital music marketplace is the end of DRM for mainstream, major label music. The death of DRM would make major changes in the hardware ecosystem possible, as manufacturers compete for eardrums and eyeballs on a level playing field. Apple's DRM has the labels stuck in a very tight place, and there is every reason to believe that deep within the darkest layers of the RIAA's war room there is a sincere desire to break free from Apple's bonds.

As for an internet only song winning a Grammy, as long as the Recording Academy members are exclusively members of the "club", I think it's safe to say that the Grammy awards won't see any internet party crashers invited to the dance. That's just simple logic.

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