Really, it's probably a lot less painful than it sounds.
Perhaps impatient with the debate over whether and how Apple should open its proprietary formats, French parliamentarians have decided to force the issue on their own. On Thursday they'll vote on a law that would force Apple to open its iTunes online music store and enable consumers to download songs onto devices other than the iPod.
Additionally, consumers would be able to legally use software that converts digital content into any format. It would no longer be illegal to crack digital rights management, as long as the intent is to the convert from one format to another.
"It will force some proprietary systems to be opened up," senior parliamentarian Christian Vanneste told Reuters. "You have to be able to download content and play it on any device."
Interestingly, the law would also mean that other online French music retailers such as Fnac, part of PPR, would have to make iTunes songs available on their Web sites.
Obviously, this is lovely news for consumers, but, unfortunately, it is likely to have Apple heading for the hills. Analysts predict that the law would spur Apple to shut down iTunes in France, out of fear that users outside of France would also use the service to convert songs.
An iTunes retreat from France would be a shame, and not just for consumers. The anti-DRM drumbeat has been getting louder by the day and it would certainly be a milestone for the industry if its bell cow at least experimented with open formats.
Of course, with 75% market share of download sales, iTunes has no incentive to fix what clearly ain't broke. You could make a case that, at least from Apple's perspective, the digital music market is basically iPod owners and everyone else. And with iPods being vastly more profitable than iTunes, why would Apple want any other paradigm for the market? Making iTunes tracks available to non-iPod users isn't likely to convert much of that segment to iPods. And, if the goal is to put an iPod in the hands of every man, woman and child, why indulge the non-iPod market by opening iTunes -- particularly if you're doing your damnedest to drive that segment to zero?
As has often been noted, the iPod isn't terribly dependent on iTunes. With 48 million iPods in circulation and 1 billion iTunes tracks having been sold, that means the average iPod user has bought 21 tracks from iTunes. That's roughly 0.5% of what a 20 Gb iPod will hold (and we can debate offline about the sources of what's filling the other 99.5%). So, for Apple's cash cow, opening iTunes isn't much of a risk. Hell, eMusic, iTunes' nearest competitor, has mustered 9% market share -- in spite of having no major label music -- mostly due to its strategy of selling mp3s that play on iPods and any other device out there.
And, let's remember that openness -- in the form of Windows-ready iTunes and iPods -- is what gift-wrapped the digital music market for Apple. That's why I'm rooting for Apple to take the plunge -- iPods will continue to sell ridiculously well, but now iTunes, armed with more consumer value, can lead the industry out of DRM's dark cave.