Wired is running a good piece
about the futility of developing new disc formats as we hurtle toward a discless wireless world of streamed media. Many
people have said so in the last several years. In this article, Robert Capps seems to have shining eyes as he describes
the ubiquity of movie content when the deep wireless bandwidth is in place: Movie houses will stream films rather than
run tape; consumers will download films rather than use Netflix or TiVo. On-demand will attain a gorgeous apex of
accessibility, transparency, and ease.
But if we have learned anything from digital music, isn't it that optimism is futile? The grand vision of a celestial
jukebox was in everybody' eyes in 1999, and look what it has come to. The record labels don't want no stinkin'
celestial jukebox, that's for certain, and the tech companies want it only if they can deliver it in their own private
format. How will Hollywood differ? The movie industry is already kissing the RIAA's butt, following music down the
litigation path like a well-trained puppy. Hollywood has been viciously opposed to new technologies in the past, even
those that turned into foundation stones of their future business.
Discless world? Yes, but not necessarily an easier or consumer-friendly one. We can be fairly certain that Hollywood
will resist every new development, destroying consumer value at every step to protect its legacy business values.
(Thanks to John Parres in Pho.)
